[Survey of 1093 people] The reality of the decline in sugar daddy/sugar baby rates | 2026 edition

Have you been feeling like your allowance has been decreasing lately?

To put it simply, the going rate for "sugar daddy" relationships did indeed decline between 2020 and 2024.

However, the decline wasn't uniform across all segments. In fact, the market in 2026 will be clearly polarized into two segments: those that have fallen and those that have maintained their market value.

This article explains the latest market trends for 2026 and three structural reasons for the decline, based on an independent survey conducted by PATOLO targeting 1,093 female members.

Furthermore, we delve into the identity of those who haven't experienced a decline in their investments, and provide concrete strategies for continuing to earn 10 to 30 yen per month even in a declining market.

This media outlet is operated by UNIVERSE GROUP and provides information to help women considering or engaging in "sugar dating" make safe and satisfying choices. The content is based on actual user reviews and our own research, and we prioritize an unbiased perspective that includes not only the benefits but also the risks and points to be aware of.
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Is the going rate for "sugar daddy" relationships declining? The latest reality in 2026.

The going rate for sugar dating is often simply summarized as having "fallen," but if you look at the actual figures in chronological order, you can see exactly what has fallen and by how much.

Let's start by confirming the facts.

Trends in allowance rates from 2020 to 2026

Comparing the going rates around 2020, when "sugar dating" (or "papa katsu") became widespread, with the current rates in 2026, we can see that the decline is particularly significant for "first meetings" and "dinner dates."

The following is an estimate of market trends compiled independently by our media outlet.

Age distribution	Meet in Person	Dinner date	Adults
2020 (before and after the COVID-19 pandemic)	10,000-20,000 yen	20,000-30,000 yen	50,000-100,000 yen
2022 (Peak of generalization)	5,000-15,000 yen	15,000-25,000 yen	40,000-80,000 yen
2024 (Inflation becomes apparent)	3,000-10,000 yen	10,000-20,000 yen	30,000-70,000 yen
2026 (present)	5,000-10,000 yen	10,000-20,000 yen	30,000-70,000 yen

The biggest drop was in the allowance for the initial meeting. In 2020, it was common to receive 1 to 2 yen, but by 2024, it had fallen to around 3,000 yen.

On the other hand, the decrease in allowances for those with "adults" tends to be relatively small.

Real market trends for 2026 as seen from a survey of 1,093 female members

Even if you have a gut feeling that the market has "fallen," few people have likely seen concrete figures to back it up.

In 2026, PATOLO conducted its own survey on the going rate for allowances among 1,093 female members.

As a result, the most common amount that female members set for "travel expenses for meeting someone" was 10,000 to 15,000 yen.

Source:PATOLO Female Member Survey & Allowance Rate Research 2026,Is 2 yen the going rate for a meeting with PATOLO?

This reveals figures that differ from the commonly held belief that "a first meeting costs 3,000 to 5,000 yen."

Amount of travel expenses set for the initial meeting	Trends among PATOLO female members (n=1,093)
5,000 less than circle	minority
5,000-10,000 yen	There is a certain number
10,000-15,000 yen	Most frequent
15,000 yen or more	There is a certain number

Before lowering your price based solely on news reports that "market prices are falling," it's crucial to check the real figures within the service.

Will 2026 be the year the decline stops? Signs of a reversal and leading indicators

Since the start of 2026, there has been a growing view within the industry that the market is beginning to stabilize.

The following three developments are attracting attention as reasons for this:

• Improvement in men's disposable income due to wage increases in 2024-2025
• The spread of the new NISA program has led to a stabilization of investment preferences.
• Elimination of apps with lax screening processes and a return to services with strict screening processes.

In particular, during the 2024-2025 spring wage negotiations, the wage increase rate for major companies reached its highest level in 33 years (5.1% according to Rengo's final calculations), and as this begins to flow into consumption, the financial resources of the "sugar daddy" class (men with the economic power to continuously pay large allowances) will recover.

Source:2024 Spring Labor Offensive - Rengo Final Tally (nippon.com),Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications: Consumer Price Index

In fact, PATOLO's monthly data shows that the average allowance set per male member has been gradually increasing since the start of 2026.

Is the perception that "decline = obsolete" correct?

I've been seeing more and more posts on social media saying that "sugar dating is a thing of the past."

However, this represents the voices of women active in apps for the underperforming segment, and does not represent the entire market.

In fact, there are still many female members at PATOLO who consistently receive monthly allowances of several hundred thousand yen.

The decline is in "a part of the market," not the entire market.

Whether or not you understand this will completely change your strategy going forward. In the next section, let's look at the structural reasons why it declined.

Three structural reasons why the going rate for "sugar daddy" relationships has fallen.

Many articles simply attribute the decline to "an increase in women," but in reality, it's the result of three structural factors working together.

Let's look at each one in turn.

Reason 1: Oversupply due to a surge in women engaging in "sugar daddy" relationships.

The biggest factor is the surge in women entering the workforce since 2020.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many women whose income from night work and service industries became unstable began registering on sugar daddy apps as a way to earn extra income.

This trend is particularly pronounced in the Tokyo area, where PATOLO's independent research shows that the number of female registrants is approximately 2.8 times that of male registrants.

Source:[2026 Latest] The Complete Guide to Sugar Dating in Tokyo

In environments where there are 2.8 or more women for every man, the bargaining power of women is structurally weaker.

When supply exceeds demand, prices fall—this simple economic principle is at work, and that's one aspect of the market downturn.

Reason 2 | High prices, a weak yen, and the new NISA program mean men's wallets aren't moving.

One factor that is surprisingly rarely discussed is the economic influence on the male side.

Due to the weaker yen and rising prices since 2022, the real disposable income of the middle class with an annual income of around 1,000 million yen has decreased.

Furthermore, with the introduction of the new NISA program in 2024, there's been a shift towards investing, which has further reduced the amount of "disposable income" available.

As a result, the middle class of wealthy men reduced their activity, and the men remaining in the market became polarized into "wealthy individuals with an annual income of over 2,000 million yen" and "those who prioritize budgets and are frugal."

The group most affected by the decline was women who interact with frugal consumers.That's how it was.

Reason 3: Proliferation of apps with lax review processes and resulting decline in service quality.

Since 2021, numerous sugar daddy dating apps with lax screening processes have entered the market.

The ease with which anyone can register has increased the number of users, but it has also reset the "market value" among men.

As men learned that they could meet women for 5,000 yen on other apps, the going rate plummeted at an accelerating pace.

Some readers may feel discouraged after reading this far, wondering, "Am I also in the lower class?"

However, there is indeed a segment of the population that has been largely unaffected by the market downturn..

There are certainly segments of the population that are not experiencing declines | The truth about a polarizing market

The accurate reality is that the going rate for "sugar daddy" relationships is not in a "general decline," but rather is "polarizing."

I will now explain, in order, the three layers that have been largely unaffected by the decline.

The "sugar daddy" category, with an annual income exceeding 2,000 million yen, maintains its market value.

The biggest influencing force behind the flow of money in the sugar daddy market is the wealthy sugar daddy class, those with an annual income of over 2,000 million yen.

This group is less affected by rising prices and a weaker yen, and the amount of allowances paid to them tends to remain relatively stable.

Approximately 6% of PATOLO's male members have an annual income of 2,000 million yen or more.

Source:PATOLO official website,PATOLO Female Member Survey & Allowance Rate Research 2026

Because male members are registered after a rigorous screening process and interviews, their annual income is verified through document confirmation rather than self-declaration.

The reality is that the allowances paid to women who interact with this demographic remain at roughly the same level as in 2020..

This is a completely different world from the phrase "the market has fallen."

In services with a strict screening process, the compensation rates are stable.

Services that employ a strict screening process have a structure that makes it structurally difficult for market prices to collapse.

The reason is simple: it makes it less likely for there to be an excessive influx of women.

In a screening-based system, women also undergo identity verification and profile review, so it's not an environment where just anyone can easily register.

As a result of limiting supply, the balance between supply and demand is maintained, and the allowance rates also stabilize.

Even though they use the same term "sugar dating," budget apps and services with strict screening processes have completely different market structures.

Women in regular contracts or long-term relationships are largely unaffected by the decline.

The third group that hasn't seen a decline is women who have regular contracts.

In monthly contracts where allowances are determined on a monthly basis, you work continuously with clients with whom you have built a relationship of trust, so you are largely unaffected by overall market downturns.

If you would like to know more about the advantages and disadvantages of monthly contracts,What is the going rate for monthly arrangements in "sugar daddy" relationships? What are the methods used in deferred payment scams, and what is a safe frequency?Please also refer to this.

The fact that there are segments of the population unaffected by the decline is a powerful tool when formulating future strategies.

Four strategies to earn 100,000 to 300,000 yen per month even in a declining market

"If there's a segment of the population that hasn't fallen, then just move into that segment." That's the simple conclusion.

I will now explain the four specific strategies in order.

Strategy 1 | Quality over Quantity: Switch to a fully vetted service that attracts wealthy sugar daddies.

The most effective approach is to switch the service you use entirely.

You'll earn more by meeting 5 people through a fully vetted service than by matching with 100 people through a cheap app.

The following three criteria should be used when choosing a service with a strict screening process:

• Income and attribute data for male members are publicly available.
• The woman's side also undergoes identity verification and screening.
• There is a function for pre-payment of allowances and a support system in place.

PATOLO is a service that fulfills all three of these requirements.

6% of male members have an annual income of 2,000 million yen or more, the quality of female members is guaranteed through a strict screening process, and there is even a function to pre-pay for travel expenses for face-to-face meetings and a support staff system in place.

Strategy 2 | Differentiate your profile from those in the "market downturn" group.

Using the same profile picture and self-introduction as women in the lower income bracket will cause men to perceive you as "just one of many women," putting you at a disadvantage when negotiating compensation.

The three key points of differentiation are as follows:

• The photos are edited minimally to gain trust through cleanliness and realism.
• Include specific hobbies, occupation, and topics you can discuss in your self-introduction.
• Avoid expressions like "I want pocket money" and instead suggest an equal relationship.

Your profile text may only be a few lines long, but simply rewriting it can have such a significant impact that it could change your allowance the following month.

Strategy 3: Transition from pay-per-use to regular/monthly contracts.

For dads you've met 3-5 times and built a relationship of trust with, suggesting a transition to a monthly contract is the quickest way to secure a stable income.

With pay-per-use arrangements, you have to negotiate each time, which can be stressful. However, with a monthly contract, your income for the entire month is determined with just one negotiation.

However, monthly contracts also carry the risk of deferred payment fraud.

Choose a safe approach, such as starting with a 50% upfront payment for the first month.It is important.

For detailed instructions, seeWhat is the going rate for monthly arrangements in "sugar daddy" relationships? What are the methods used in deferred payment scams, and what is a safe frequency?is explained.

Strategy 4: Bring the negotiation timing forward to "before the face-to-face meeting"

A common problem in a declining market is when the actual price offered is lower than what was initially quoted.

To prevent this, it's effective to finalize the compensation before the initial meeting.

PATOLO has a system in place where travel expenses for meeting in person are paid in advance, and the amount is finalized in the woman's account before the meeting takes place.

Since you don't have to worry about "when will I get it?" on the day of the date, you can concentrate on the date itself.

By simply changing your strategy, it's entirely possible to maintain income at or above pre-downturn levels, even during a market downturn.

On the other hand, there are certain behaviors that should be avoided.

Three things you should absolutely never do in a falling market.

In a declining market, it's even more important to understand what *not* to do than to focus on strategies for making money.

The following three negative behaviors are sure to lower your long-term income.

NG1 | Easily accepting price reduction requests and continuing the relationship

The most common mistake is accepting the other party's demand for a price reduction and continuing the relationship.

If you agree to lower the price even once, saying "the market price is down," the other party's demands will only escalate further.

• "Can you reduce my salary by 1 yen starting next month?"
• "Things are tough this month, so let's skip it this time."

If you comply with these demands, the relationship itself will be fixed as one where you are "someone you can haggle over with."

When a price reduction is requested, it's generally the right decision in the long run to cut your losses in that relationship.

NG2 | Missing the signs that a sugar daddy is posing as a "fat sugar daddy" and is asking for a price reduction.

Recently, there's been an increase in men who exaggerate their annual income to pretend to be a "sugar daddy," approach women, and then try to negotiate a lower price.

You can spot the sign by looking at these three things.

• "I don't have any cash on hand right now," he said, hinting at a deferred payment option from the start.
• They talk a lot about their annual income, but they don't really specify their occupations.
• The meeting place was always a chain cafe.

A generous sugar daddy will choose a hotel lounge or a high-quality cafe rather than a chain restaurant from the very first date, and he won't give any excuses for being stingy with the allowance.

How to tell the difference[Poor Sugar Daddy Dating] Characteristics of Low-Paying Sugar Daddies Who Try to Lower the Market RateThis is explained in detail.

NG3 | Chasing short-term "numbers" and rushing to register for multiple apps

The idea of ​​"if the market is declining, let's increase the number of apps and profit from the volume" only expands the segment of the market that is experiencing declines and does not provide a fundamental solution.

Even if you use five cheap dating apps simultaneously, you'll only meet men from lower social strata.

Rather than spreading your efforts across multiple services, you'll find that focusing on one or two fully vetted services and deepening your relationships with wealthy sugar daddies will ultimately lead to more stable income.

By avoiding negative behaviors and executing strategies, you can transform yourself into a woman who can profit even in a declining market.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Decline in Sugar Daddy/Sugar Baby Rates

Now, I will answer some frequently asked questions from our readers about the decline in the going rate for "sugar daddy" relationships.

Is it true that it's become common to have a free initial meeting?

It varies greatly depending on the service level.

Cosmetic surgeon Mikiya Takasu caused a stir when he said that "free introductory consultations are becoming the norm," but this is only true in the world of budget-friendly apps.

Source:livedoor NEWS

A survey of 1,093 female PATOLO members revealed that the most common budget for travel expenses for a first meeting is between 10,000 and 15,000 yen.

The idea that "meeting someone for free is normal" is only true when using budget-friendly dating apps.

Is "sugar dating" (papakatsu) a thing of the past? Is it no longer profitable?

You can only call something "dead" if a "six-tier decline" occurs.

In reality, the situation is polarized, and in three areas—the sugar daddy market, services with strict screening processes, and regular contracts—many women are still earning at the same level as before the decline.

Re-evaluating which social stratum you belong to can open up new possibilities.

Are prices in rural areas falling even further?

While the decline in regional areas tends to be greater than in Tokyo, this is not so much a matter of "absolute levels" but rather a structural issue related to "the fact that wealthy men in regional areas meet with their partners while on business trips."

In rural areas, relying solely on local fathers will leave you more vulnerable to the effects of the decline.

One effective strategy is to target business executives who are visiting from urban areas such as Tokyo and Osaka on business trips.

Regarding regional differences by age group,Sugar daddy allowance rates by ageIt is also helpful.

Are prices also falling for services that include adults?

The going rate for dates involving adults tends to be smaller compared to initial meetings or dinner dates.

The reason is that the group of men who want to have an adult partner is predominantly from the wealthy class.

The market price, which was between 5 and 10 yen in 2020, is projected to remain at a similar level of 3 to 7 yen even in 2026.

For a detailed understanding of market trends,[By Gender] A Thorough Explanation of the Going Rates for Adult Socializingis explained.

Will the market decline further? What are the prospects for 2026 and beyond?

It is highly likely that prices will stop falling or even slightly increase from 2026 onwards.

This is because there are three favorable factors: widespread wage increases, a stabilization of the new NISA investment market, and the elimination of apps with lax screening processes.

However, this applies to the market as a whole. An individual's income is heavily influenced by their strategic choices regarding which segment of the market they operate in.

Summary | The sugar daddy strategy that works even in a downturn is "selective."

It is true that the going rate for sugar daddy relationships has fallen,In a polarized society, by re-selecting the "segment that hasn't declined," it's possible to maintain or even increase income.Here's a summary of the key points in this article.

• While the going rate for "sugar dating" (compensated dating) declined from 2020 to 2024, it is expected to stabilize in 2026.
• The reasons for the decline are threefold: "oversupply," "high prices and the new NISA," and "a proliferation of apps with lax screening processes."
• Services catering to wealthy sugar daddies, those with strict screening processes, and those with regular contracts have been largely unaffected by the decline.
• The strategy consists of four parts: "switching to high-quality services," "profile differentiation," "transitioning to recurring contracts," and "prior negotiation."
• Accepting price reduction requests, dealing with sugar daddies posing as "favorites," and the counterproductive nature of registering on multiple apps.

It's not that "sugar dating" is no longer profitable.

The honest truth is that you won't be able to make money if you continue doing things in the same place and using the same methods as before.

Re-evaluating your current situation and switching to a strictly vetted service where wealthy sugar daddies gather is the shortest route to success in this declining era.

PATOLO is one of the few services where 6% of male members have an annual income of 2,000 million yen or more, and it features a strict screening process and a function to prepay for travel expenses for face-to-face meetings.

If you're looking to reassess your trading strategy during a market downturn, start by registering for free.